Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Can tyranny of numbers deliver a people’s Law?




"I wasn’t in control of why members in different committees decided to vote the way the voted…I did not have any ill motives against the Opposition in coming up with these names. I nominated Prof Lipumba so he could represent the entire Opposition in the Steering Committee,’’ SAMWEL SITTA''

Dar es Salaam/Dodoma.  With Members  of Constituent Assembly (MCAs) from the ruling party dominating  crucial Katiba House committees, there are fears that the Constitution-making process may be anything but smooth.

Indeed, a number of  MCAs, including some from the ruling party, yesterday expressed fears that the making of the Constitution faces a bleak future and uncertainty. They were concerned about what some analysts have described as CCM’s move to control key Katiba committees.  So tense has the situation become that Prof Ibrahim Haruna Lipumba quit the Steering Committee on Tuesday, saying he was not ready to be “a rubber stamp”. The Steering Committee, which comprises six members, is chaired by CA Chairman Samuel Sitta, and plays an oversight role in all the committees.

Riding on the back of what a renowned Kenyan political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi famously described as the “tyranny of numbers”, the MCAs from the ruling CCM on Monday elected their cadres to chair 12 of the 14 committees.

In reaction, Mr David Kafulila of the opposition NCCR-Mageuzi remarked:  “It’s like we are here to prepare a constitution for the ruling party.”

According to the MP for Kigoma South, the MCAs solidly elected Mr Sitta to chair the assembly in the hope that he would be fair to all parties and groups. Urging him to rescind his appointments, Mr Kafulila added:  “It’s a pity that you have turned this assembly into a CCM meeting. You may be applauded by CCM members in this House but people watching what you’re doing  on TV will have a different view of your wisdom.”

Mr Kangi Lugola, a CA member from the ruling party, joined the bandwagon and urged Mr Sitta to revoke the appointment of the five nominees to the Steering Committee. If we are guided by the intention of making sure that Tanganyika does not swallow Zanzibar within the Union,” he asked, “why can’t we apply the same logic and ensure that CCM, being the major party, does not muzzle the other minority parties in this process?”

Tanzania Constitution Forum (TCF) official, Mr Hebron Mwakagenda, told members of the CA that they were not in Dodoma to compete on the basis on their political affiliation and they should remember that rewriting the constitution called for a national consensus. It will be very difficult to get a constitution that will be in the public interest, he added, if the MCAs behaved as though it was business as usual.

“CCM legislators and the CA leaders should remember that they aren’t writing a constitution for CCM members, it is the national constitution that they are writing,” said Mr Mwakagenda.

But Prof Issa Shivji, a renowned lawyer, has a different take on the matter:  “If the leaders of the CA committees were not appointed and were elected, that is democracy. If there is anyone who is not satisfied with the elections, he or she can appeal.”

CCM Secretary-General Abdulrahaman Kinana declined to comment, directing The Citizen instead to the secretary of CCM members in the CA, Ms Jenister Mhagama—who was unavailable for comment.

Dr Khoti Kamanga, a senior lecturer with the University of Dar es Salaam’s Department of Public Law did not consider CCM’s domination of the CA a problem—yet.  “Problems will arise when these CCM chairmen start forcing their agenda instead of building consensus to win other members’ backing,” the don said on the phone.

There have been instances in parliaments worldwide, Dr Kamanga pointed out, when some committees have been headed by the opposition in order to strike a balance.

How Kikwete gambled

Almost two months after the January 2011 General Election—which  the opposition Chadema roundly condemned—President Jakaya Kikwete made a stunning move that shocked  even members of his Cabinet and the ruling party stalwarts.

While key cabinet ministers strenuously opposed the idea of rewriting the Constitution, which Chadema was championing at the time, President Kikwete took a political gamble and agreed to the project. He went as far as to promise that he would use his second term to drive the process.

President Kikwete’s sudden acceptance of an idea that even his own party and government strongly rejected calmed down those who were eager to turn the review of the constitution into a burning issue. Very quickly, arrangements were made to table a Bill in Parliament seeking to change the constitution—thanks to President Kikwete’s sudden U-turn.

President Kikwete had probably done his homework after consulting his political advisers and intelligence communities and was sure how the entire process would end. The President’s first move was to own the process to make the new constitution, which was initiated by Chadema after the party lost the 2010 General Election.  The political gamble that President Kikwete took is now yielding results.

Chadema’s presidential candidate, Dr Willibroad Slaa, had campaigned in 2010 saying he would give the country “the people’s Constitution” within 100 days of his leadership. His argument was that the current one was outdated and had been written mainly to suit the era of one party regime.

 But Dr Slaa’s move was strongly rejected by the CCM hardliners, who maintained that the current constitution was the great and only needed some minor changes.

When President Kikwete threw his weight behind the change-the-constitution idea, he was promptly transformed into the winner, not the loser.

He was the winner because, first of all, he managed to defuse what was seen as growing political tension among the section of Tanzanians who supported Chadema. He also succeeded in hijacking an agenda that did not belong to him or his party.

 At this stage, President Kikwete managed to set the well-calculated pace that finally has given his party huge political mileage in the current Constituent Assembly (CA).

As Chadema was busy celebrating, the party was losing the ownership of its own agenda—oblivious of the story behind President Kikwete’s sudden move.

What followed was President Kikwete directing his party through Central Committee and National Executive Committee to educate the people, especially their followers, on the whole idea of changing the  constitution

Even cabinet ministers were later dispatched throughout the country to educate the people on the constitution-changing process.  Behind the scenes, there were legal experts crafting the Bill that would eventually allow the President to form the Constitutional Review Commission (CRC).

 When the Bill was tabled in Parliament, opposition lawmakers, especially from Chadema, walked out in protest at some key clauses—leaving their rivals to dominate the process.

 The truth was very clear: Within Parliament, CCM lawmakers were the majority in terms of numbers and they would make sure they dominated the process.

But even when the Bill was passed without the consent of the Chadema lawmakers, President Kikwete still accommodated opposition leaders at State house to enable them air the views.

 Apart from Chadema, whose MPs had walked out, President Kikwete extended his invitation to other opposition parties including Civic United Front (CUF), National Construction for Constitution and Reforms (NCCR) and others.

Up to this point, apart from protesting and walking out, the opposition did not have a clear strategy on how they would ensure that they could counter the moves of their rivals in CCM.

Parliament has a total of 349 MPs, including the nominated members. CCM has 248 MPs, which is 71 per cent, while the opposition parties have only 89 lawmakers.  In Zanzibar, the House of Representative has 82 with the ruling party taking 48 seats, leaving the rest to the opposition CUF.

In these circumstances, how could the minority then manage to deal with their counterparts—the majority—in the very same House that was supposed to lay the ground on how the new constitutional order would be achieved?

As CA members get down to business this week, the entire process of making the constitution appears to be out of synch after the ruling party played the tyranny of numbers ticket to take the control of 98 percent of parliament’s committees.

 As an  analyst put it: “Kikwete’s gamble is paying while at the same time CCM is playing with numbers to control the process…at this point, CCM is the winner.” source The Citizen

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